{"id":328200,"date":"2024-02-27T13:30:09","date_gmt":"2024-02-27T18:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chiefexecutive.net\/?p=328200"},"modified":"2024-02-27T13:30:09","modified_gmt":"2024-02-27T18:30:09","slug":"power-failure-the-biggest-business-challenge-no-one-is-talking-about","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chiefexecutive.net\/power-failure-the-biggest-business-challenge-no-one-is-talking-about\/","title":{"rendered":"Power Failure: The Biggest Business Challenge No One Is Talking About"},"content":{"rendered":"

Adding to his concerns about the global agricultural economy, steel availability, labor rates and climate change, now Titan International CEO Paul Reitz has something new to worry about: electricity. \u201cWe\u2019ve had more grid issues in the last 12 months than in the 10 years before that,\u201d says the CEO of the $2 billion manufacturer of heavy-duty wheels and tires based in West Chicago, Illinois. \u201cWe\u2019re talking about in the American Midwest, where five years ago, you wouldn\u2019t have anticipated that\u2014maybe in Brazil, China, Turkey and other places we\u2019ve expanded. But those countries haven\u2019t had these issues.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reitz operates large industrial presses where he can\u2019t just rely on green alternatives for substantial electricity demand at his half-dozen U.S. plants. \u201cIf a press stalls in the middle, it\u2019s dangerous,\u201d he says. \u201cAnd when the power goes out, you have a lot of scrap product.\u201d<\/p>\n

He\u2019s hardly alone. In industry after industry, experts and executives are growing increasingly concerned about the ability of the U.S. to maintain a functional electrical grid in the face of demands it has never faced before. The artificial intelligence boom has tech companies throwing up massive new electron-sapping data centers. The electric vehicle revolution is bringing its own power-thirsty needs in the form of battery factories and vehicle chargers. Throw in the nascent explosion of domestic chip-making, the accelerated reshoring of other manufacturing operations and other new and growing demands, and there are big questions about what happens next.<\/p>\n

Can the grid keep up? Probably not. It\u2019s already way behind, with little prospect of gaining ground anytime soon. \u201cWe don\u2019t even have a grid that can meet today\u2019s needs, much less the needs of the future,\u201d says Linda Apsey, CEO of ITC Transmission, a transmission-grid operator in the Midwest.<\/p>\n

The grid\u2019s challenges aren\u2019t just a matter of capacity but also of reliability, outright fragility and mis-coordination amid crises by utilities, other power suppliers, government agencies and customers. Meanwhile, power is getting dramatically more costly: National electricity prices rose by more than 14 percent in 2022 over 2021, more than double the overall rate of inflation.<\/p>\n

Most recently, add to that supply-chain constraints for conducting cables, wooden poles and the other stuff that actually goes into making and sustaining America\u2019s three regional electricity grids, consisting of 190,000 miles of transmission line and involving 500 companies. There\u2019s now an 18-month wait for new transformers, says the International Energy Agency.<\/p>\n

\u201cCompanies are being forced to think out much longer on big projects, understanding that even once construction starts, it may be 24 or 30 months before they have the power to serve that facility,\u201d says Larry Gigerich, managing director of Ginovus consultants and president of the U.S. Site Selectors Guild. \u201cWhat does that do from an operations standpoint?\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"Historically, the nation\u2019s utility industry has responded well to rising demand. Over the last half-century or so, utilities expanded power generation and availability\u2014through construction of plants powered by fossil fuels and nuclear energy\u2014enough to cover the post-World War II economic boom, the electrification of the American home via the democratization of appliances and the growth of the Sun Belt, thanks to widespread air conditioning. Following that, utilities and their customers pulled off much of a significant transition from legacy coal-based generation to power from natural gas, which has become cheap and plentiful in the United States.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cThere is still work to be done,\u201d says Barbara Humpton, CEO of Siemens USA, the American arm of the German industrial equipment giant. \u201cBut we believe the grid can get to the right point, because the technology needed is already available.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nowhere But Up<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The question now is whether, after roughly stable consumption from the Great Recession through today, utilities can handle forecasted growth of 2 percent to 4 percent a year for the near future and what Accenture consultants predict will be a 40 percent to 50 percent increase in U.S. electricity consumption over the next 30 years.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cNow we want a grid that\u2019s highly reliable, and we want it to be resilient against climate and weather events,\u201d Apsey says. \u201cWe want it to be secure and to access the cheapest source of generation, as well as access clean energy resources. And by the way, we now have to have a grid that can accommodate the electrification of our economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Thus, energy availability and security have emerged as key factors in new siting decisions, and Reinhard Fischer is tussling with it in two roles. As vice president of strategy for Volkswagen North America, he was part of the automaker\u2019s recent decision to put its new battery-cell factory in St. Thomas, Ontario, because \u201c95 percent of their energy is hydropower, and they have plenty of it,\u201d he says. Meanwhile, in his job as a board member of Electrify America, Fischer is pushing the \u201cneed to look first at locations where power is available\u201d for the company\u2019s EV-charging stations. That\u2019s why, for instance, the Reston, Virginia-based network struck agreements with Walmart and Target Stores to construct charging centers on their premises.<\/p>\n

Dennis Cuneo is also on the cutting edge of the challenges of the straining grid. One of the site consultant\u2019s clients plans to put a $4 billion battery plant in the U.S. and sent information about the project to 27 states, receiving back 72 proposed sites. \u201cWe quickly got that down to six, because most of the sites couldn\u2019t meet our electricity demands,\u201d he says. \u201cWe wanted more than 250 megawatts of power, but a couple of utilities didn\u2019t have the capacity. Utilities were quoting up to 36 months of lead time on the transformers they would need. Our third issue was wanting mostly renewable energy; no one could fulfill that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Plants to make modern batteries for electric vehicles and other equipment require as much as 300 megawatts, far more than a typical auto assembly plant\u2014enough electricity to power 200,000 homes. \u201cThere aren\u2019t many sites you can go to that can guarantee to meet that load within 18 months,\u201d Cuneo says.<\/p>\n

Add to those complications the consequences of the federal Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and other outpourings of federal largess, offering hundreds of billions of dollars of incentives for construction of power-slaking facilities to undergird the new, electrified economy.<\/p>\n

\u00a0America\u2019s fast-rising demand for data centers is also contributing. That industry\u2019s electricity demand could double in about five years, according to the Electric Power Research Institute. However, \u201cthere\u2019s a big constraint on readily available power to operate all these projected AI projects and also keep up with the data needs of Google, Meta and others trying to help consumers keep their phones and all the content on them incredibly fast and efficient,\u201d says Michael Rareshide, a partner at Site Selection Group.<\/p>\n

Look Closely<\/strong><\/h4>\n

One unsettling harbinger could be what happened in 2022 in Ashburn, Virginia. That\u2019s when Dominion Energy surprised local CEOs and economic development officials by pausing new connections for an exploding number of data centers, which were already consuming 20 percent of the utility\u2019s electricity generation in a three-county region that touches about one-third of the world\u2019s entire online traffic.<\/p>\n

Grid debacles in California and Texas added to the furor. The Golden State mis-regulated itself into a corner where EV mandates, management of spark-prone brush around power lines and sky-high costs have crippled the utility industry. Texas\u2019s vaunted economy was nearly brought low by the Great Texas Freeze storm of 2021, which highlighted, among other things, the Lone Star State\u2019s curious overreliance on wind power.<\/p>\n

If grid challenges can humble the two largest state economies in the nation, the problem must be considered not only widespread but endemic. Major causes include:<\/p>\n

Underinvestment. <\/strong>About half of the nation\u2019s transmission and distribution lines are 20-plus years old, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Utilities \u201cmay have the power,\u201d Rareshide says. \u201cThey just can\u2019t get it places. They can\u2019t get transmission lines and substations built fast enough.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gigerich says the nation has \u201cunderinvested in the grid for a very long time. At the same time, the whole notion of transferring over to green energy has been presented largely as a false narrative.\u201d<\/p>\n

As part of their largely involuntary push toward green energy, the nation\u2019s utilities have been decommissioning coal-fired plants faster than they\u2019re replacing them with natural gas and green power. \u201cFor the last decade or so, the power industry was a bad place to be,\u201d says Brian Baker, CEO of Sentry Equipment, which makes equipment for power plants in Oconomowoc, Wisconsin. \u201cUtilities were grappling with the prospect of green energy, not investing in new plants and not spending a lot of money on the plants that were up and running.\u201d<\/p>\n

Popular resistance is a factor. \u201cIt\u2019s important that we not allow repeated, and what are in many cases meritless, challenges to legal permits,\u201d says Dan Brouillette, CEO of Edison Electric Institute, a utility industry organization. \u201cIf we meet very stringent environmental standards, at some point someone has to say enough is enough. It\u2019s a bit too easy to slow things down through regulation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Overwhelming demands. <\/strong>Grid operators were awake to the uphill climb they faced but have become overwhelmed by its immediacy. For example, \u201cToday\u2019s level of thirst [by data centers] is a new dynamic that was unforeseen two years ago,\u201d Rareshide says.<\/p>\n

Contributors include not just data centers and EV plants but also a broad and accelerating electrification of the hardware that powers the U.S. economy, from heat pumps that are sweeping New England to electric lawn blowers that are transforming the landscaping industry. The bitcoin mining industry has recovered and is contributing to burgeoning electricity demand. So is the oil services business.<\/p>\n

Southern\u2019s new projections for Georgia now reflect energy growth of about 6,600 megawatts through 2030, up from its forecast of only about a 400-megawatt increase issued in January 2022. \u201cThis is driven primarily by businesses coming to the state that are bringing large electrical demands at both a record scale and velocity,\u201d Adrianne Colins, senior vice president of power delivery for the Atlanta-based utility, said at a recent federal hearing.<\/p>\n

Decarbonization mandates. <\/strong>Of the 500 largest companies globally, 63 percent already have set a major climate milestone, according to the President\u2019s National Infrastructure Advisory Council. Such commitments have joined NGO and government pressure to force shutdowns of coal plants and promote resistance, even to the popular alternative of natural gas generation.<\/p>\n

Yet about 80 percent of C-Suite leaders across America fear it will take 20 years for their companies to get access to sufficient zero-carbon electricity, according to a recent Accenture survey. A \u201cprimary vulnerability [of the grid] is the premature retirement of resources that can provide [conventional] balancing energy and, in the longer term, the risk that there will not be sufficient investment in balancing resources,\u201d said Gordon van Welie, CEO of ISO New England, the region\u2019s transmission grid, at a recent conference.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, solar and wind power, of course, are interruptible. Green energy installations are also typically remote from population centers, meaning they require long transmission lines and tens of thousands of extra transformers to reach customers.<\/p>\n

Permitting of these projects \u201chas been slowed dramatically by bottlenecks,\u201d says Scott Tinkler, head of Accenture\u2019s utility practice. \u201cThere is as much or more solar and wind capacity looking to connect through the grid as there is capacity online already.\u201d And plans for the most high-profile wind power project in America\u2014Danish company Orsted America\u2019s windmill hub off the coast of New Jersey\u2014have crumbled into a debacle.<\/p>\n

Climate change. <\/strong>Some blame climate change for rising incidences of calamities like hurricanes and wildfires. \u201cClimate risk has moved from a decades-forward point for awareness to a near-term consideration in many companies\u2019 risk-management procedures,\u201d said NAIC. Climate change also \u201cmakes the task of establishing a reliable and resilient grid that much more difficult.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such effects of warmer temperatures \u201cmay have a significant impact on good locations for manufacturing in the not-too-distant future,\u201d warns Siemens\u2019 Humpton.<\/p>\n

Security threats. <\/strong>They range from outright attacks on electrical substations to cybercrimes. \u201cWe need to initiate very secure cybersecurity in our power and other critical infrastructure, such as water, to prevent malicious attacks that could bring manufacturing and other human activities down,\u201d says Tom Coughlin, president-elect of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.<\/p>\n

Patching the Problems<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Industry, utilities, government agencies, NGOs and others have been addressing the problem of ensuring an adequate grid by dramatically bolstering investments. ITC and regional partners, for example, committed $10 billion to making grid upgrades over the next five years.<\/p>\n

Entergy has already replaced about 21,000 distribution poles, placed nearly 1,500 new transmission structures and completed 15 new substations in just the first three quarters of 2023. The moves were part of a 10-year capital expenditure blitzkrieg for the New Orleans-based regional electric utility that involves $16 billion in spending on hardening and improving its systems.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also a growing chorus to give nuclear power another chance. After long providing about 20 percent of America\u2019s electricity, nuclear declined to about a 17 percent share, burdened by high costs, long construction timelines, plant closures and lingering concerns over decades of headline-grabbing disasters including Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima.<\/p>\n

Mostly, a rebirth of nuclear electricity generation is seen occurring through so-called \u201cmodular\u201d reactors, which are small projects that can be built in remote locations and power-heavy industries. There also are new fuels that are \u201caccident tolerant\u201d and can\u2019t be proliferated dangerously by terrorists. Such initiatives offer some hope that the American electricity grid ultimately will succeed in climbing out of its current hole. \u201cA lot of investments are being made,\u201d says Todd Snitchler, CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, which represents non-utility power providers. \u201cWe\u2019re not waiting for the government to tell us what to do.\u201d<\/p>\n

What to Do Now<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Looking to advance Your company\u2019s energy interests? Some ideas:<\/p>\n

Search the sticks. Often, more\u2014and more reliable\u2014power is available in remote locations. \u201cGrid-lock\u201d in large cities is pushing more big tech companies into smaller communities\u2014Google 25 miles south of Dallas to Midlothian, Texas, for instance\u2014than ever before.<\/p>\n

Adapt to the status quo. It is much faster to leverage already-existing infrastructure than to ask a utility to bring power\u2014or just more power\u2014to a new location. XCharge North America\u2019s EV chargers appeal to commercial customers because they work on current that\u2019s already available. \u201cNearly all U.S. commercial sites already have 208-volt current, and our units work on either 208 or 480,\u201d says Aatish Patel, president and co-founder.<\/p>\n

Understand utilities\u2019 needs. Power providers will be more apt to listen to your concerns if you can help them with things like green-energy generation or green storage, or work with other partners in the area who are already developing a project with the utility, says VW\u2019s Reinhard Fischer. Says Edison Electric Institute\u2019s Dan Brouillette: \u201cStart talking with your utility today about expansion plans, and not just about transmission systems. You may need an upgrade in transmission but also in your distribution system.\u201d<\/p>\n

Get on the gravy train. There\u2019s still time to apply for federal incentives that back green-power installations, but expect a logjam. All the federal goodies coming at once \u201chas compressed all the demand for battery plants,\u201d for instance, says site consultant Dennis Cuneo. But \u201cyou want to build them now, because you want to take advantage of\u201d government money.<\/p>\n

Raise awareness. The public seems to pay attention to grid challenges only when there\u2019s a huge blackout. CEOs must work with \u201cpolicymakers and regulators to drive utilities to do what\u2019s necessary, to clearly explain to the public the challenges and what the solutions can be,\u201d says Greg Reimer, president and CEO of Surge Battery Metals, which is developing a lithium mine in Nevada. One example: how business leaders including Elon Musk and OpenAI\u2019s Sam Altman have been calling for a national return to nuclear power, which they regard as green\u2014and safe.<\/p>\n

Do it yourself. Do what you can to make operations more energy-efficient and lowest-cost, including using new digital modeling. Also, commercial facilities have growing options for generating their own power, including cogeneration, installation of solar arrays and addition of natural-gas generators. Prologis, for instance, has become the third-largest generator of on-site energy in the country by installing solar-powered fleet-vehicle charging platforms at clients\u2019 warehouses. \u201cThe best place to charge these trucks is when they\u2019re loading and unloading, and that\u2019s what we\u2019re doing for our customers,\u201d says Susan Uthayakumar, chief energy and sustainability officer for the San Francisco-based logistics giant.<\/p>\n

But be careful. \u201cHaving grid-scale reliability and access to all sources of generation is going to be cheaper and more reliable than having your own facility and cutting the cord to the transmission grid,\u201d notes ITC Transmission CEO Linda Apsey.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

America\u2019s electrical grid is more important than ever before. It\u2019s also more vulnerable.\u00a0A guide for CEOs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":328201,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[874,9,891],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-328200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crisis-management-leadershipmanagement","category-operations","category-politicspolicy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPower Failure: The Biggest Business Challenge No One Is Talking About<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"America\u2019s electrical grid is more important than ever before. 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