{"id":374744,"date":"2025-09-15T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chiefexecutive.net\/?p=374744"},"modified":"2025-09-12T10:47:41","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T14:47:41","slug":"ceos-cut-2026-outlook-in-september-poll-as-economic-uncertainty-persists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chiefexecutive.net\/ceos-cut-2026-outlook-in-september-poll-as-economic-uncertainty-persists\/","title":{"rendered":"CEOs Cut 2026 Outlook In September Poll As Economic Uncertainty Persists\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Just two months ago, CEOs collectively breathed a sigh of relief, as tariffs for most countries went into effect and the Big Beautiful Bill ushered in promises of juicy corporate tax cuts and reduced regulation, giving business leaders hope that they could finally get back to business with some degree of planning ability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That didn’t last long.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our September CEO Confidence Index polling finds CEOs\u2019 perception of current business conditions in the U.S. stuck in neutral, at one of the lowest levels of the year still: 5.1 (measured on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent). That\u2019s flat from the 5.2\/10 in August, 8 percent lower than July and 19 percent lower than where CEO perceptions were in January. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And while CEOs forecast the economy 12 months from now will reach 5.5\/10\u2014a healthy 8 percent higher from what it is today\u2014their rating is the second consecutive monthly decline in their outlook, from 6.8\/10 in July to 5.7\/10 in August.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cInconsistency and instability from DC makes planning extremely difficult right now, and inflationary costs that can be absorbed have been absorbed. Those are now being passed-through to consumers. It’s a tough climate for sustaining growth,\u201d said David Reimer, CEO of The ExCo Group. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEvolving tariff environment is reducing business confidence and increasing costs,\u201d agreed Tim Zimmerman, CEO of Mitchell Metal Products. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CEO of a wholesale manufacturer agreed: \u201c[The outlook] is highly dependent on stabilization of global trade and tariffs. Too hard for people to create strategies when the ground moves every 30-60 days.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of the CEOs polled said they saw increasing evidence that the Trump administration\u2019s policies were starting to slow the overall economy. \u201c[There is] demand uncertainty due to tariffs. We continue to see softness in multiple segments of our business that is driven by customers taking cautious approaches to their businesses, including very tight inventory management, as they wait to see how tariffs ultimately play out,\u201d said the CEO of a publicly traded global manufacturer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The administration policies are not predictable and may create an environment conducive to stagflation,\u201d said the CEO of a mid-market financial services firm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, some are seeing improvements in pipelines and continue to hope that this period of uncertainty will lead to a better business climate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe tariff situation is currently freezing many consumers from making capital equipment purchases. If this strategy can stabilize, and interest rates can come down, things should improve,\u201d said the CEO of a PE-backed global manufacturer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven with all the tariff noise, inflation isn\u2019t as bad \u2026 especially on products made in America. A year from now, as tariff concerns fade, the deportation turmoil settles and new favorable tax laws take effect, companies like ours, with little international exposure, will see real benefits,\u201d said Andrew Ly, CEO of Ly Brothers Corporation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, just 46 percent of CEOs surveyed said they now expected the economic outlook for the coming year to improve, the lowest level since March and on par with CEO ratings throughout 2024. Those expecting conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead ticked up slightly in September, to 28 percent\u2014higher than it was in 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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RECESSION ODDS\u00a0<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In our September polling, 29 percent of CEOs surveyed said they now expect a recession in the next six months, versus 28 percent last month and 21 percent in July (recession fears peaked at 48 percent amid the tariff rollout in April). The number of CEOs expecting growth in the next six months fell from 48 percent last month to 39 percent in this month\u2019s poll. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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THE FED\u2019S ROLE\u00a0<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Asked what they would like to see from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, 92 percent of CEOs responded they want to see deep rate cuts. Nearly two-thirds said they are hoping for the Fed to cut rates by at least 75 basis points, with a third asking for a percentage point or more. Only 6 percent said they\u2019d be happy with a 25 bps cut.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the Fed not provide the expected cuts, CEOs expect the outcome to range from continuing \u201cflatness\u201d and margin pressure to broader economic strain, including delayed capital investments, layoffs and reduced demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWithout a stimulus to the economy I expect further deterioration of consumer sentiment and a weakening economy,\u201d said the CEO of a large North American entertainment company. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe organization will need to be shaped for potentially a smaller scale and protect the profits, while looking for very strategic initiatives in new products and labor reduction via automation,\u201d said the CEO of a staffing agency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAdditional increases will be passed to customers to combat the rising cost of insurance and need to increase wages,\u201d said the CEO of a family-owned business. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe will be looking to restructure our business and potentially shutter capacity,\u201d said the CEO of a publicly traded consumer manufacturing company. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Year Ahead\u00a0<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Corporate forecasts for the year ahead have been holding fairly steady over the past few months, but CEOs say their companies are nevertheless falling short of their 2025 targets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n